Getting good reception early won't hurt in drafts
By Matt Pitzer, USA TODAY
If you have read much about fantasy football, you know the adage about running backs. It probably has been drilled in to your head a few times: You can't have too many, and you can't draft them too early.
You hear it so often you can't help but be sick of it. And if you're sick of it, this might be your year. This season, you can chuck that philosophy out the window and win without it.
Instead, this could be the "Year of the Diva," because wide receivers are taking center stage in drafts.
The elite crop of wide receivers is small. If you want them, you must act quickly — as quickly as you used to in getting running backs.
Part of this shift is structural. Perhaps frustrated by years of running back dominance, fantasy leagues have shifted in recent years to highlight wide receivers.
The original lineup of two running backs and two wideouts (and maybe a flex) has given way, in many cases, to leagues that start three wide receivers and/or give a point per reception to boost wideout scoring.
Add the importance of passing games to winning in the NFL these days, and wide receivers are new fantasy building blocks.
Here is how you should handle the major positions heading into your draft.
Quarterback
New England PatriotTom Brady and New Orleans Saint Drew Brees are the obvious cream of the crop, and you can argue about who is No. 1. But depending on how your league is structured, even these stars might slip a round or two. Passing on your choice of the pair, however, would be difficult if they were still available in the third round.
But don't stress about grabbing one of them. A solid group lies behind, including underrated (just this year) Indianapolis Colts star Peyton Manning. He could finish close to Brady and Brees yet is being drafted one to three rounds later. And if not Manning, look at Philip Rivers (San Diego Chargers), Aaron Rodgers(Green Bay Packers), Kurt Warner (Arizona Cardinals), Tony Romo (Dallas Cowboys) or even Donovan McNabb (Philadelphia Eagles).
You might not be a fan of all those quarterbacks, but one of your favorites will be around a few rounds after the top quarterbacks go.
Just be sure to get one of the 10 best; that is the approximate cutoff to No. 1 quarterbacks you can be comfortable with most weeks. If not, you will have to scramble to insure yourself with two lower-rated quarterbacks, possibly within your first eight selections, to wind up with at least one safe start each week.
Running back
This is the year to be a contrarian with your running backs. Sure, if I pick in the top five, I probably will take a running back first. But after that, all bets are off because of your scoring system and because of what else happens in front of you.
If you're picking ninth and all running backs go first, the difference between the back you can get at No. 9 and coming back at No. 15 (in a 12-team league) is small.
That's a great spot, however, to take the first wide receiver. You will receive a premium for the top wideout and still get a very good back in the second round.
In fact, any spot in the second half of the first round is prime position for going against the grain on running backs.
I recently had the eighth pick in a draft, and six of the first seven slots were backs. So I took Arizona Cardinals Pro Bowler Larry Fitzgerald first.
Then, while everybody else was worrying about wide receivers, the Atlanta Falcons' Michael Turner somehow fell to me in the second round and the Buffalo Bills' Marshawn Lynch in the sixth.
Now, before you think I'm tooting my own horn, under no reasonable circumstance should Turner or Lynch have fallen that far. The point is that some back or two out of this year's deep crop will fall to you if you avoid pressuring yourself into an early pick.
Why cross your fingers and hope for Washington Redskin Clinton Portis late in the first when you can take Detroit Lions youngster Kevin Smith or Green Bay's Ryan Grant two rounds later, or Tampa Bay Buccaneers prized free agent Derrick Ward three rounds after that? Depth is your friend this year.
Wide receiver
Unlike with running backs, you do not want to get caught on the wrong end of a wide receiver run. Once the best of the bunch go, you'll be fighting for whatever you can get.
The elite class is three strong: the Patriots' Randy Moss, Fitzgerald and the Houston Texans' Andre Johnson. Put them in any order you want.
After that trio is a drop to a group including Steve Smith (Carolina Panthers), Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis), Roddy White (Atlanta), Calvin Johnson (Detroit) and Marques Colston (New Orleans).
The first three are so good that they should go in the first round in many leagues. The second five are good, but each has problems. And many of the wideouts this year add blights quickly as you move down the rankings.
If you need to start three receivers, with an option to start a fourth, you had better make sure you have a strong presence at the top of your depth chart; otherwise, you will be chasing the competition all season.
Take your stud early, in the first round if you have a late pick, but certainly consider it strongly in the second.
The usual advice when dealing with position runs is to ignore the spurt of picks at one position and find a value pick elsewhere.
That does not apply in the second and third rounds with wide receivers.
You still might find value being ignored at another position, but you will not find value when you come back to wide receiver later.
Ignoring the good ones early means you wind up counting on too many risky players.
Searching for one late-round gem is fine; everybody does that. But trying to fill two or three regular starting spots is far riskier.
By Matt Pitzer, USA TODAY
If you have read much about fantasy football, you know the adage about running backs. It probably has been drilled in to your head a few times: You can't have too many, and you can't draft them too early.
You hear it so often you can't help but be sick of it. And if you're sick of it, this might be your year. This season, you can chuck that philosophy out the window and win without it.
Instead, this could be the "Year of the Diva," because wide receivers are taking center stage in drafts.
The elite crop of wide receivers is small. If you want them, you must act quickly — as quickly as you used to in getting running backs.
Part of this shift is structural. Perhaps frustrated by years of running back dominance, fantasy leagues have shifted in recent years to highlight wide receivers.
The original lineup of two running backs and two wideouts (and maybe a flex) has given way, in many cases, to leagues that start three wide receivers and/or give a point per reception to boost wideout scoring.
Add the importance of passing games to winning in the NFL these days, and wide receivers are new fantasy building blocks.
Here is how you should handle the major positions heading into your draft.
Quarterback
New England PatriotTom Brady and New Orleans Saint Drew Brees are the obvious cream of the crop, and you can argue about who is No. 1. But depending on how your league is structured, even these stars might slip a round or two. Passing on your choice of the pair, however, would be difficult if they were still available in the third round.
But don't stress about grabbing one of them. A solid group lies behind, including underrated (just this year) Indianapolis Colts star Peyton Manning. He could finish close to Brady and Brees yet is being drafted one to three rounds later. And if not Manning, look at Philip Rivers (San Diego Chargers), Aaron Rodgers(Green Bay Packers), Kurt Warner (Arizona Cardinals), Tony Romo (Dallas Cowboys) or even Donovan McNabb (Philadelphia Eagles).
You might not be a fan of all those quarterbacks, but one of your favorites will be around a few rounds after the top quarterbacks go.
Just be sure to get one of the 10 best; that is the approximate cutoff to No. 1 quarterbacks you can be comfortable with most weeks. If not, you will have to scramble to insure yourself with two lower-rated quarterbacks, possibly within your first eight selections, to wind up with at least one safe start each week.
Running back
This is the year to be a contrarian with your running backs. Sure, if I pick in the top five, I probably will take a running back first. But after that, all bets are off because of your scoring system and because of what else happens in front of you.
If you're picking ninth and all running backs go first, the difference between the back you can get at No. 9 and coming back at No. 15 (in a 12-team league) is small.
That's a great spot, however, to take the first wide receiver. You will receive a premium for the top wideout and still get a very good back in the second round.
In fact, any spot in the second half of the first round is prime position for going against the grain on running backs.
I recently had the eighth pick in a draft, and six of the first seven slots were backs. So I took Arizona Cardinals Pro Bowler Larry Fitzgerald first.
Then, while everybody else was worrying about wide receivers, the Atlanta Falcons' Michael Turner somehow fell to me in the second round and the Buffalo Bills' Marshawn Lynch in the sixth.
Now, before you think I'm tooting my own horn, under no reasonable circumstance should Turner or Lynch have fallen that far. The point is that some back or two out of this year's deep crop will fall to you if you avoid pressuring yourself into an early pick.
Why cross your fingers and hope for Washington Redskin Clinton Portis late in the first when you can take Detroit Lions youngster Kevin Smith or Green Bay's Ryan Grant two rounds later, or Tampa Bay Buccaneers prized free agent Derrick Ward three rounds after that? Depth is your friend this year.
Wide receiver
Unlike with running backs, you do not want to get caught on the wrong end of a wide receiver run. Once the best of the bunch go, you'll be fighting for whatever you can get.
The elite class is three strong: the Patriots' Randy Moss, Fitzgerald and the Houston Texans' Andre Johnson. Put them in any order you want.
After that trio is a drop to a group including Steve Smith (Carolina Panthers), Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis), Roddy White (Atlanta), Calvin Johnson (Detroit) and Marques Colston (New Orleans).
The first three are so good that they should go in the first round in many leagues. The second five are good, but each has problems. And many of the wideouts this year add blights quickly as you move down the rankings.
If you need to start three receivers, with an option to start a fourth, you had better make sure you have a strong presence at the top of your depth chart; otherwise, you will be chasing the competition all season.
Take your stud early, in the first round if you have a late pick, but certainly consider it strongly in the second.
The usual advice when dealing with position runs is to ignore the spurt of picks at one position and find a value pick elsewhere.
That does not apply in the second and third rounds with wide receivers.
You still might find value being ignored at another position, but you will not find value when you come back to wide receiver later.
Ignoring the good ones early means you wind up counting on too many risky players.
Searching for one late-round gem is fine; everybody does that. But trying to fill two or three regular starting spots is far riskier.
